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Thursday, November 13, 2014

EDP Renovaveis - Quoted in Euronext

Company information

EDP Renovaveis (EDPR) is the world leader in the renewable energy sector.

For more information, you can visit the Company website, Finance Yahoo or Euronext website

Its activity is developed mainly in Europe (60% of revenue) and in the North America (38% of revenue).

It operates in a very regulated market, so every possible gains can be strongly affected by the politics decisions in countries where it has business.

It's mais shareholder is EDP, and EDPR is a spin-off this last company, by regulatory obligations.

Shares

The company issued 872.308.162 stocks and the price is about 5.15€, which corresponds to a market capitalization of almost 4.500M€ (or \$5.600M converted now)

Free foat is very short, just about 19% of all shares.

I will now make a quantitative analysis  of this stock.

2014 numbers

Now, the numbers (the values for 2014 are my predictions):

Revenue (2014) : 1.238.400.000€ (or 1.42€ per share ; CARG +6.9% last 4 years)
Book-Value (2014) : 7.05€ (CARG +2.8% last 4 years)
EPS (2014) : 0.09€ (CARG -5.1% last 4 years)
ROE (2014) : 1.2%

All that said, this is a very hard stock to study.
For me, it is overvalueded but that can change dramatically if ROE increases.

Dividends

This company dividends has been 0.04€ both 2013 and 2014, the only years that have been a dividend payment. Yield is around 0.8%, at today price.

My opinion

My numbers gives these streategies:

Bargain value : 3.45€
Good value : 3.75€
ROE 2% : 4.84€
ROE 3% : 5.95€

As I write, stock is quoted at 5.15€, so it has lots of risks investing now. I woudn't do it.