Since last sale, I have done 3 buys and 2 sells.
I now own a company that I will reveal later.

At the end of August'2015, my portfolio was up 6% from Dec,31,2014.
Not bad, but missed the going up of Corticeira Amorim, the company I was trading.

Corticeira Amorim is now, in my opinion, above fair value so I give up trading it.

See you soon!

Corticeira Amorim - sell

Considering the turmoil the markets have seen these days, I sold my shares and hope to buy them at a little lower price.

This sale was made at 4.135€ representing 1.0% profit, after commissions and fees.

Not bad, in a one month! See you soon!

Corticeira Amorim - A new buy

Since this is a rather iliquid stock, I didn't mentioned the buy earlier.
A few days ago, I bought again at 4.095€.

Unfortunately, the stock price is under that since that day. Today, it closed at 3.90€.
Not worried, since it is a great company

At my price it has a PER of 13.8 and profits are climbing >10% YOY the last few years.

I'm ok being a shareholder, and wait for the upside I hope for this stock.

Corticeira Amorim - no upside potencial

I've been watching this stock for a while and made some trading.

From the begining of 2015, the stock went from €3.00 to €4.20 (this moment price), or, a 40% gain. It was a rather impressive climb, but I think this it is now ended.

In the period, I made 5 trades making a profit of 20%. Not much, but then, I am a rather conservative investor.

In my opinion, this is a stock to sell now, for those who own it, or to wait for some dip in price to buy again.

My price target has been attained: €4.20! I predict it will have a 14 PER and a 1.70 P/B this year. As it is a very small free-float company and in a business that is not growing much near times, I think risk is now too much to buy this stock.

Although, the 3.3% yield can be a reason to maitain it, for those who have some shares.

I will continue to follow it, but with no more trading in the next days/weeks.

Today, buy&sell - Corticeira Amorim

This stock continues to offer some intraday trades.
They happen in a quite random manner but, till now, the results are good.

Today, I bought some shares at €3.83 and sold them, just a couple of hours later, at €3.97. These prices include transaction comission, but not taxes. It was a profit of 3.7% trade. Nice!

See you soon!

Corticeira Amorim - a little dip and... trade complete

Sold today at 3.78€. Profit : 3.0%
Not bad!

Corticeira Amorim - a little dip

This stock continues to have great variations day-by-day.
After reaching 3.84€, pulled back and I bought some at €3.67. Hope to get some profit very soon, from this buy.

Take care!

Corticeira Amorim - buy and sell

This company has inceased profit in 2014 and dividends for 2015 to 0.14€ from 0.12€.
It is really a great company, and I will continue to do this game.

Bought last friday at 3.72€ and sold it today at 3.81€.
Profit: 2.4%

Take care!

Corticeira Amorim - buy and sell

I'm not pretty sure this will work in the long run, but for now it's being very educational and funny too.

I bought this stock back in feb,10, @3.33 and sold it in feb,12 @3.37 (after fees and comissions).
This gave me a 1.2% profit and now I'm on buyer side again.

Has I wrote, it is a very-low-free-float-and-traded-stock of the portuguese market, but a great company that has been very well managed.

Do you have any strategy of this kind?

Picking the right stocks is important

Today I came across this study and it has some data that confirm what the stock market is for informed traders/investors and for most people who doesn't understand the market and run away from them.

Stock picking

The way I look at the market, is obvious that we must choose profitable companies to invest in.

This is not for all investors, but for me it is how it works. I don't want to own a company that doesn't make a profit at the end of the year.

The study I mentioned above analise the Russel 3000 between 1983 and 2006 shows that, in this period:

• 2 out of 5 stocks were unprofitable investments;
• 1 out of 5 stocks lost at least 75% of their value
• 2 out of 3 stocks underperformed the Russell 3000
• 1 out of 4 stocks were responsible for all of the market’s gains

This means we have to look at a portfolio and see if our stocks are profitable, with increasing earnings and with good margins. If we do this, I believe we can profit from the market, and grow our wealth in the future.

Corticeira Amorim - sell

Yesterday I sold my shares of this company.
I had very luck, since my sell order ended the day before and, when I saw it, the price was more than 5% up my price target. So I sold and this trade turn out to give me a litlle more than 10%, including dividends.
Now I will wait for some retraction in price and buy more, in a few days I hope. :)

Corticeira Amorim - Christmas dip

On dec/24/2014, this stock gave a nice opportunity to buy more. Although the price has been around €3.00, stock took a dip till €2.77.
I didn't  bought since I'm long and wish to sell a bit higher in a buy&sell strategy in this low-free-float portuguese stock.

Take care!

Corticeira Amorim - buy

Today I bought shares of this company. I had an order way below market price but, as this title has low liquidity, I happen to buy 0.07€ below my price.
Today's shares will pay a 0.07€ Dividend so that's OK for me. I think I can profit both ways: sell the stock in a few day a few %% points above and by dividends.

I'll give the news here, soon.

Corticeira Amorim - buy & sell

Busy day: bought @3.10 in the morning and sold @3.15 right after lunch.

This is not my kind of investing, I'm a value investing fan. Although, I think there is an oportunity here I will try to profit with this.

I'll try to do this more times, so far 3 nice trades.

All values are comission & fees free.

Corticeira Amorim - sell

Today I sold my little position in Corticeira Amorim.
The net price was a bit over €3.14. Net profit : 3.6% (in less than 2 weeks)

I believe I can buy, again, at lower price and, in that case, I will be happy to became a shareholder again, since I believe the company is pretty cheap right now.

Have A nice weekend!

Corticeira Amorim - buy

I'm glad to say that I'm a Corticeira Amorim shareholder.
I bought some shares with final price €3.03, including fees and comissions.

By this price, I have:

P/B : 1.28
PER : 11.2
Yield : 3.96%

I think I made a good deal but this is a rather especial stock, since free float is low. I might sell the stock if price goes up fast.

Cheers!

EDP Renovaveis - Quoted in Euronext

Company information

EDP Renovaveis (EDPR) is the world leader in the renewable energy sector.

For more information, you can visit the Company website, Finance Yahoo or Euronext website

Its activity is developed mainly in Europe (60% of revenue) and in the North America (38% of revenue).

It operates in a very regulated market, so every possible gains can be strongly affected by the politics decisions in countries where it has business.

It's mais shareholder is EDP, and EDPR is a spin-off this last company, by regulatory obligations.

Shares

The company issued 872.308.162 stocks and the price is about 5.15€, which corresponds to a market capitalization of almost 4.500M€ (or $5.600M converted now)

Free foat is very short, just about 19% of all shares.

I will now make a quantitative analysis  of this stock.

2014 numbers

Now, the numbers (the values for 2014 are my predictions):

Revenue (2014) : 1.238.400.000€ (or 1.42€ per share ; CARG +6.9% last 4 years)
Book-Value (2014) : 7.05€ (CARG +2.8% last 4 years)
EPS (2014) : 0.09€ (CARG -5.1% last 4 years)
ROE (2014) : 1.2%

All that said, this is a very hard stock to study.
For me, it is overvalueded but that can change dramatically if ROE increases.

Dividends

This company dividends has been 0.04€ both 2013 and 2014, the only years that have been a dividend payment. Yield is around 0.8%, at today price.

My opinion

My numbers gives these streategies:

Bargain value : 3.45€
Good value : 3.75€
ROE 2% : 4.84€
ROE 3% : 5.95€

As I write, stock is quoted at 5.15€, so it has lots of risks investing now. I woudn't do it.

To my readers

What do you think of this analysis?
It was easy to read? Do you find it useful?
How would you feel investing in this company?

Disclosure

I don't have this stock in my portfolio neither will have it if the numbers don't chang dramatically.

Corticeira Amorim - 2014 - 3rd quarter - Update

From my last post about this company, the stock has gone from 2.95€ to 3.17€ (+ 7.5 %).
Unfortunately, I didn't bought it at that time.

The results of this company are now known.

For a 12 months period ending in September 2014, comparing with a 12 months ending in September 2013, we have:

Revenue : + 1.5%
EBITDA : + 7.5%
Profit : + 31.3%
Book-value : + 3.0%

Which means that, to a quote at 3.10€:
PER : 11.4
P/B : 1.31

Plus, the company will pay an extra dividend of 0.07€ per share from acumulated results.

I think this company can reach at least 3.85€ in the next 3 years (excluding dividends).
So, to me, this is still a good price to buy the stock and watch it grow.

What do you think about this company? Do you know it? And about my analisys, it was simply to read? Feel free to comment and/or contact me.

Disclosure

This company has very little free-float, so risk of liquidity is big.
I don't have this stock in my portfolio but I can add it these days.

Corticeira Amorim - Quoted in Euronext

Company Information

One of the most profitable Portuguese companies is Corticeira Amorim. It produces and transforms cork that is now a well known material for all kind of industries from construction to components of space-shuttles!

 You can learn more about it visiting the

- Website of the company;
- Yahoo finance information;
- Google finance information;
- Euronext website.

Geographically, revenue come from: Portugal (5%), Europe (61,7%), USA (18,3%), America (ex-USA) (6,8%), Australia (6,6%) and Africa (1,6%).

Shares

The company issued 133.000.000 stocks and the price is about 3.00€, which corresponds to a market capitalization of almost 400M€ (or $500M)

Free foat is very short, just about 10% of all shares.
Company have 5.5% of own shares.

I will now make a quantitative analysis  of this stock.

2013 Numbers

In 2013 the company had:

- Revenue : 542.5M€ ( + 5.5% CARG last 3 years) ;
- EBITDA : 78.1M€ ;
- Profit : 30.3M€ ( + 12.4% CARG last 4 years) ;
- Equity : 301.7M€ ( + 5.2% CARG last 4 years) ;
- Debt/EBITDA : 1.30

2013 Numbers per share

- Revenue : 4.08€
- EPS : 0.228€
- Book value : 2.268€

At march, 31, 2014

• the stock quoted 2.85€, 25% above the book value.
• the Graham Number of this stock was 3.34€. 

Dividends

The stock paid a 0.12€ dividend, which is a 4.2% yield on the march, 31, 2014, closing price. Payout ratio 53% :

My opinion

This stock was a clear BUY at the end of march, 2014, and now is trading in the range 2.85€/3.00€.

For me, the stock can reach 4.10€ in the next 3 years, depending on the dividend payout.

This is clearly, a buy oportunity!

To my readers

What do you think of this analysis?
It was easy to read? Do you find it useful?
How would you feel investing in this company?

Disclosure

I don't have this stock in my portfolio but I can add it if price come to the 2.80€/2.85€ range.

Investing: what do I mean with that?

I am a huge fan of Warren Buffett. This means evaluate the companies in my own terms and believe my judgment to choose where to invest my money. This means, look at profits, equity and cash-flow.

The best book I know to start to start in this subject has been a huge reference over decades.

I also believe that to be able to have some success in the stock market, it does not imply having a big financial and/or mathematical knowledge. I think with some common sense and a relatively short time involved, it is possible to have good results with a small investor portfolio.

I think frequent trading is not suitable for a small investor/savers and is not the best way to manage the savings that decides to put into the stock market.

These are some main ideas I will develop in this blog.